Forecasting at the Grid Edge, Precision that Powers the Future
For decades, utilities have relied on system-wide forecasting to plan generation and balance supply with demand. But in today’s world of distributed resources; air conditioners, irrigation pumps, EV chargers, solar panels, and batteries aggregate forecasting is no longer enough.
The challenge is clear: how do you forecast the behavior of thousands of small, variable, and customer-controlled assets?
The answer lies in grid-edge forecasting. By combining real-time measurements, localized weather, and advanced algorithms, utilities can now anticipate and orchestrate load at the household, farm, or feeder level. Connected Energy (CE) is at the forefront of this transformation.
CE's Forecasting Innovation
At the PLMA EV Symposium 2025, CE highlighted its forecasting breakthroughs. Our DERMS platform uses a combination of traditional algorithms, machine learning (ML), and artificial intelligence (AI) to predict load with unmatched accuracy.
Here’s how it works:
- Localized Weather Integration: CE’s platform ingests weather data at the nearest proximity to the distributed resource, not just regional averages.
- Asset-Specific Models: Different resources require different forecasting methods.
- AC units: similar-day algorithms tied to temperature.
- Irrigation pumps: ML neural networks, tuned to crop cycles and watering schedules.
- EV chargers: real-time usage patterns cross-referenced with vehicle telematics.
- Continuous Learning: ML models update as new data is captured, ensuring forecasts reflect today’s actual conditions, not yesterday’s assumptions.
Case Studies: Forecasting in Action
Air Conditioning (AC)
- Adaptive duty cycling with CE’s algorithms utilizes the home profile and local weather to create fair, accurate contributions from every home.
- Results: Higher customer satisfaction and more reliable event yields.
- Smart Thermostats
- Traditional thermostat programs fail in multi-hour events.
- CE’s Maximum Sustained Yield (MSY) Algorithm stretch contributions across 3–4 hours, making thermostats true long-duration assets.
- Irrigation Pumps
- Traditional models struggled to predict pump behavior.
- CE’s neural network models forecast pump load accurately by factoring in crop type, irrigation schedules, and seasonal timing.
Why It Matters for Utilities
- Accuracy = Reliability: Forecasting at the grid edge means event performance matches market commitments.
- Equity = Participation: Customized forecasting ensures fair treatment across customers, improving enrollment and retention.
- Flexibility = Value: Better forecasts allow utilities to stack resources for energy, capacity, and ancillary service markets.
In short: better forecasting means higher reliability, lower costs, and satisfied customers.
CE’s Role in the Future Grid
Connected Energy believes forecasting is the foundation of grid flexibility. By combining AI, ML, and real-time data, CE’s DERMS platform transforms distributed resources into a predictable, dispatchable fleet.
This is not the grid of yesterday. This is the intelligent grid of tomorrow, and forecasting is the bridge that gets us there.
About Connected Energy
Connected Energy provides advanced DERMS solutions to utilities and grid operators to integrate distributed resources ranging from irrigation pumps to EVs into reliable, flexible, and decarbonized energy systems.
